Environmental Science and Health Publications

Permanent URI for this collection

http://196.220.97.103:4000/handle/123456789/165

Browse

Now showing 1 - 5 of 56

Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa
(Weather and Forecasting, 2021-04-27) Endris, H.S.; Hirons, L.; Segele, Z.T.; Gudoshava, M.; Woolnough, S.; Artan, G.A.
The skill of precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems has a strong regional and seasonal dependence. Quantifying the skill of models for different regions and time scales is important, not only to improve forecast skill, but to enhance the effective uptake of forecast information. The Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S) database contains near-real-time forecasts and reforecasts from 11 operational centers and provides a great opportunity to evaluate and compare the skill of operational S2S systems. This study evaluates the skill of these state-of-the-art global prediction systems in predicting monthly precipitation over the Greater Horn of Africa. This comprehensive evaluation was performed using deterministic and probabilistic forecast verification metrics. Results from the analysis showed that the prediction skill varies with months and region. Generally, the models show high prediction skill during the start of the rainfall season in March and lower prediction skill during the peak of the rainfall in April. ECCC, ECMWF, KMA, NCEP, and UKMO show better prediction skill over the region for most of the months compared with the rest of the models. Conversely, BoM, CMA, HMCR, and ISAC show poor prediction skill over the region. Overall, the ECMWF model performs best over the region among the 11 models analyzed. Importantly, this study serves as a baseline skill assessment with the findings helping to inform how a subset of models could be selected to construct an objectively consolidated multimodel ensemble of S2S forecast products for the Greater Horn of Africa region, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization.
Multisector Collaborative Groundwater-Surface Water Modelling Approach to Improve Resilience to Hydrological Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin
(Springer, 2021) Mustafa, S.M.T.; Van Loon, A.; Artur, L.; Bharucha, Z.; Chinyama, A.; Chirindja, F.; Day, R.; Franchi, F.; Geris, J.; Hussey, S.; Nesamvuni, E.
It is necessary to combine the understanding of physical environmental drivers with social, economic, cultural and political perspectives and information to build resilience to future flood and drought hazards. We present a flexible collaborative modelling approach to improve resilience to hydrological extremes in large basins with application to the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). It uses an iterative, knowledge co-production process to strengthen crucial bridges between scientists and water management stakeholders on the appropriate scale(s). In the proposed collaborative modelling approach, the integrated hydro (geo)logical model is combined with regional to transboundary people’s knowledges and policies. We analyse the effect and importance of stakeholders’ feedback on the numerical model prediction. The proposed methodology is applied in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) where floods and droughts are recurrent events. Through this iterative multisector collaborative modelling approach, we aim to develop a reliable and feasible management instrument to help reduce the impact of alternating droughts and floods and increase the resilience to hydrological extremes.
Traditional Practitioners and Nurses’ Perspectives on Traditional Medicine Utilisation During Antenatal Care in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe
(SAGE, 2021-07-01) Mudonhi, N.; Nunu, W.N.
Background Traditional Health System has been reported to be the most accessible, affordable, and acceptable in resource-poor settings, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is utilised for different health needs, including pregnancy management. This study sought to explore traditional and Nurses’ perspectives on traditional medicine utilisation during antenatal care in Bulilima District, Plumtree, Zimbabwe. Methods A qualitative survey was conducted on purposively selected nurses’ and snowballed traditional health practitioners who responded to unstructured interviews. Data were collected using a digital tape recorder, transcribed, and thematically analysed on Max Qualitative Data Analysis. Results A total of 6 superordinate and 10 subordinate themes emerged from the collected and analysed data on both traditional practitioners and nurses. The superordinate themes associated with Traditional Medicine utilisation during pregnancy by women were: protective role, beliefs, shortening of labour, cleansing, accessibility, and collaboration between traditional practitioners and modern health practitioners. Nurses expressed their skepticism on the safety and efficacy of traditional medicine utilisation during pregnancy. Conclusion Women utilise traditional medicines and remedies during pregnancy for different reasons, such as protection from evil spirits, foetus growth and shortening labour. There are concerns regarding their safety from the health service providers, although traditional practitioners share a different view. There is a need for investing in research that would ascertain the safety of these traditional medicines as this system has been a cheaper alternative for those who cannot afford or access modern health services.
An assessment of risk factors for contracting rabies among dog bite cases recorded in Ward 30, Murewa district, Zimbabwe
(PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021-03-31) Chikanya, E.; Macherera, M.; Maviza, A.
Background Zoonoses are a major threat to human health. Worldwide, rabies is responsible for approximately 59 000 deaths annually. In Zimbabwe, rabies is one of the top 5 priority diseases and it is notifiable. It is estimated that rabies causes 410 human deaths per year in the country. Murewa district recorded 938 dog bite cases and 4 suspected rabies deaths between January 2017 and July 2018, overshooting the threshold of zero rabies cases. Of the 938dog bite cases reported in the district, 263 were reported in Ward 30 and these included all the 4suspected rabies deaths reported in the district. This necessitated a study to assess risk factors for contracting rabies in Ward 30, Murewa. Methodology/ Principal findings A descriptive cross sectional survey was used for a retrospective analysis of a group of dog bite cases reported at Murewa Hospital, in Ward 30. Purposive sampling was used to select dog bite cases and snowball sampling was used to locate unvaccinated dogs and areas with jackal presence. The dog bite cases and relatives of rabies cases were interviewed using a piloted interviewer-administered questionnaire. Geographical Positioning System (GPS) coordinates of dog bite cases, vaccinated and unvaccinated dogs and jackal presence were collected using handheld GPS device. QGIS software was used to spatially analyse and map them. Dog owners were 10 times more likely to contract rabies compared to non-dog owners (RR = 10, 95% CI 1.06–93.7). Owners of unvaccinated dogs were 5 times more likely to contract rabies compared to owners of vaccinated dogs (RR = 5.01, 95% CI 0.53–47.31). Residents of the high density cluster (area with low cost houses and stand size of 300 square meters and below) were 64 times more likely to contract rabies compared to non-high density cluster residents (RR = 64.87, 95% CI 3.6039–1167.82). Participants who were not knowledgeable were 0.07 times more likely to contract rabies, compared to those who had knowledge about rabies. (RR = 0.07, 95% CI 0.004–1.25). Our study shows that the risk factors for contacting rabies included; low knowledge levels regarding rabies, dog ownership residing in the high density cluster, owning unvaccinated dogs and spatial overlap of jackal presence with unvaccinated dogs.
The experiences of sex workers accessing HIV care services in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
(African Health Sciences, 2021-06-02) Moyo, I.; Macherera, M.
Background: Although sub-Saharan African countries have rolled out massive HIV treatment and care programmes, there is little evidence of these having embraced key population groups particularly female sex workers. Due to the criminalisation of sex work in countries like Zimbabwe, research on HIV and its impact on this group is sparse. The absence of an enabling environment has hindered access to HIV care and treatment services for female sex workers. Objectives: To gain an in-depth understanding of the experiences of female sex workers accessing HIV care and treatment services to enhance programming and planning for this key population group. Methods: This study was qualitative and phenomenological. Data saturation determined the sample size of 20 participants. Data was collected using in-depth interviews that were audio recorded, transcribed, and subjected to thematic content analysis. Results: Our findings demonstrate varying dynamics between the private and public sector HIV care services for sex workers, with facilitators and barriers to access to care. Conclusion: Health workers need sensitization and training in the provision of differentiated care. For effective linkage to and retention in care an enabling environment is critical.

Browse

Recent Submissions