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- ItemQuantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios(2020-07-24) Mukandavire, Z.; Nyabadza, F.; Malunguza, N.J.; Cuadros, D.F.; Shiri, T.; Musuka, G.The emergence and fast global spread of COVID-19 has presented one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times with no proven cure or vaccine. Africa is still early in this epidemic, therefore the extent of disease severity is not yet clear. We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. We also estimated the percentage reduction in effective contacts due to the social distancing measures implemented. Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83–3.33). A vaccine with 70% efficacy had the capacity to contain COVID-19 outbreak but at very higher vaccination coverage 94.44% (95% Crl 92.44–99.92%) with a vaccine of 100% efficacy requiring 66.10% (95% Crl 64.72–69.95%) coverage. Social distancing measures put in place have so far reduced the number of social contacts by 80.31% (95% Crl 79.76–80.85%). These findings suggest that a highly efficacious vaccine would have been required to contain COVID-19 in South Africa. Therefore, the current social distancing measures to reduce contacts will remain key in controlling the infection in the absence of vaccines and other therapeutics.
- ItemThe contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners(AOSIS, 2018-03-26) Dube, Ernest; Munsaka, EdsonThis article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.
- ItemAn Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of Insurance Companies in Zimbabwe(2017-06-21) Mazviona, Batsirai Winmore; Dube, Mbakisi; Sakahuhwa, TendaiThe study sought to examine factors affecting the performance of insurance companies in Zimbabwe. We utilized secondary data from twenty short-term insurance companies. The data was for the period from 2010 to 2014. We used factor analysis and multiple linear regression models to determine the factors affecting performance and identifying their impact. Our findings revealed that expense ratio, claims ratio and the size of a company significantly affect insurance companies’ performance negatively. Whilst leverage and liquidity affect performance positively. We recommend that insurance companies should introduce mechanisms that reduces operational costs such as automated systems.
- ItemDay of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange: A non-linear GARCH analysis(Academy of Business and Retail Management, 2015-11) Mazviona, Batsirai Winmore; Ndlovu, Milton WebbThis study analysed the day of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) by taking into account volatility of returns. The purpose of the study was to establish whether daily mean returns across a trading week differ from each other. We employ a non-linear approach in modelling the day of the week effects. In particular, we used the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. We used industrial and mining daily closing indices data from 19 February 2009 to 31 December 2013. The data was retrieved from the ZSE website. EViews 7 software was utilised for data analysis. In order to test the null hypothesis of equality of daily mean returns, a Wald test was carried out. The Wald F-statistic rejected the null hypothesis of equality of mean returns for the industrial index. We found the traditional negative Monday and positive Friday effect for the industrial index in GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The GARCH (1,1) detected a negative Friday effect and the EGARCH (1,1) detected negative Wednesday effect for the mining index. We found evidence of model dependency for the mining index results.
- ItemAn Event Study Of The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE): Implications For Post-dollarisation Market Efficiency(MCSER Publishing, 2014-03) Chowa, Taonaziso; Nyanhete, Alois I.; Mhlanga, RichardThis paper investigates the impact of earnings (full-year, half-year and dividend) announcements and cautionary statements on returns of ZSE listed companies post-dollarisation of the economy in 2009. A standard CMRM based event study methodology (EVM) is applied to weekly returns from January 2010 to December 2012. Findings suggest that earnings announcements and cautionary statements have no impact on returns of companies traded on the ZSE characterised by a very weak correlation of between ‘good/bad news’ and the direction of significant CARs. We conclude that alleged insider trading, high costs of trading and market undervaluation make it difficult for EVM to detect abnormal returns, thereby painting picture of compliance with the weak to semi-strong forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).